Cloud & Capital

Market Tape

Jun 25, 11:34 AM EDT

Tracked: 52 · Universe screened: 340 · 7 groups

Lumen's Analysis

Lumen is analyzing market conditions…

AI Compute Commitments

$1.5T+

committed across major AI compute deals in the past 18 months · ~35 GW locked capacity

Buyer	Compute Provider	$ Committed	GW Locked	Term	Announced	Source
Anthropic	AWS (Trainium / Inferentia)	$100B+	5 GW	10 years	Apr 2026	↗
Anthropic	Google Cloud / TPU (Broadcom)	$200B	3.5 GW TPU	5 years (starts 2027)	Apr 2026	↗
Anthropic	xAI / SpaceX (Colossus 1)	~$40B ($1.25B/mo thru May 2029)	300 MW / 220K+ NVIDIA GPUs	3 years	May 20, 2026	↗
OpenAI	Stargate (Oracle, SoftBank, partners)	$500B total / $400B+ committed	10 GW target / 7 GW planned	2025–2029	Jan 2025 (updated May 2026)	↗
OpenAI	Microsoft Azure	ongoing (overflow + existing traffic)	—	ongoing	2024+	↗
OpenAI	NVIDIA (equity + Vera Rubin compute)	$30B equity + compute commitment	5 GW (3 inference + 2 training)	—	Feb 2026	↗
Meta	NVIDIA (Blackwell + Vera Rubin + Grace)	~$50B	—	multi-year	Feb 2026	↗
Meta	AMD (Instinct MI450+)	~$60B	6 GW	5 years	Feb 24, 2026	↗
Meta	Amazon (Graviton5 chips)	multi-billion	—	—	2026	↗
Jane Street	CoreWeave	$6B	—	—	Jun 2026	↗
Google	SpaceX / xAI	$920M/month (~$30B total)	—	Oct 2026 – Jun 2029 (32 months)	Jun 5, 2026	↗

Anthropic$100B+

AWS (Trainium / Inferentia)

5 GW·10 years·Apr 2026↗ source

Anthropic$200B

Google Cloud / TPU (Broadcom)

3.5 GW TPU·5 years (starts 2027)·Apr 2026↗ source

Anthropic~$40B ($1.25B/mo thru May 2029)

xAI / SpaceX (Colossus 1)

300 MW / 220K+ NVIDIA GPUs·3 years·May 20, 2026↗ source

OpenAI$500B total / $400B+ committed

Stargate (Oracle, SoftBank, partners)

10 GW target / 7 GW planned·2025–2029·Jan 2025 (updated May 2026)↗ source

OpenAIongoing (overflow + existing traffic)

Microsoft Azure

—·ongoing·2024+↗ source

OpenAI$30B equity + compute commitment

NVIDIA (equity + Vera Rubin compute)

5 GW (3 inference + 2 training)·—·Feb 2026↗ source

Meta~$50B

NVIDIA (Blackwell + Vera Rubin + Grace)

—·multi-year·Feb 2026↗ source

Meta~$60B

AMD (Instinct MI450+)

6 GW·5 years·Feb 24, 2026↗ source

Metamulti-billion

Amazon (Graviton5 chips)

—·—·2026↗ source

Jane Street$6B

CoreWeave

—·—·Jun 2026↗ source

Google$920M/month (~$30B total)

SpaceX / xAI

—·Oct 2026 – Jun 2029 (32 months)·Jun 5, 2026↗ source

Market Status

ExposureRisk-On

71/1000 = max defensive · 100 = max risk-on

Trend

Long-termSideways

IntermediateSideways

Short-termSideways

Breadth

Strong

Above 20d MA52%

Above 50d MA67%

Risk Environment

VolatilityNeutral

SentimentBullish

MomentumPositive

Momentum EnvSelective

Market Internals

VIX↑

19.2+3.1%

10Y Yield

4.39%-1.5%

Dollar (DXY)

101.3+2.1%

Gold (GLD)

$369+0.9%

Oil (USO)

$108.2+1.8%

Macro Context

Bonds (TLT)

Rising+1.91 RS1M

Credit (HYG)

Neutral+1.55 RS1M

Dollar (DXY)

Rising+3.29 RS1M

Small vs Large

IWM leading+0.82 spread

Sectors · RS1M vs SPY

1XLF

+1.93

2XLV

+1.38

3XLI

+1.24

4XLU

+0.62

5XLB

+0.61

6XLP

+0.34

7XLRE

+0.23

8XLK

+0.12

9XLE

-0.43

10XLY

-0.61

11XLC

-1.48

Countries / Global

1INDA

+0.92

2EWJ

+0.48

3EWC

+0.31

FinOps Signals

Commitment Windows

Cloud Valuations

Hyperscaler CapEx

Momentum · Laggards

LDOSC

Leidos Holdings, Inc

-2.46

LYBC

LyondellBasell Industri…

-2.30

NFLXC

Netflix, Inc

-1.94

CTSHC

Cognizant Technology So…

-1.66

ICEC

Intercontinental Exchan…

-1.62

Tech Concentration

XLK vs SPY

Grade A+0.12 RS

Growth ratio (QQQ/SPY)Lagging -0.01

Mag 7 proxy (QQQ)$713 +0.4%

Risk Alerts

Sector Insights

Momentum · Universe Leaders

EAA

Electronic Arts Inc

+3.73

+0.04%

BACA

Bank of America Corpora…

+3.30

+1.65%

CAHA

Cardinal Health, Inc

+2.98

+1.34%

Citigroup Inc

+2.77

+2.17%

NWLA

Newell Brands Inc

+2.68

+3.09%

JPMA

JPMorgan Chase & Co

+2.36

+2.08%

PHA

Parker-Hannifin Corpora…

+2.29

+2.96%

GEA

GE Aerospace

+2.28

+2.65%

WFCA

Wells Fargo & Company

+2.26

+1.74%

HSICA

Henry Schein, Inc

+2.24

+1.33%

Universe: 340 instruments